Post-Super Tuesday Analysis

(from an e-mail from the campaign)

POST-SUPER TUESDAY ANALYSIS

· Super Tuesday proved that this is a very fluid election. Gov. Romney won seven states, including Colorado and Minnesota where Republicans must be competitive in the general election.

· The nomination is by no means settled. Even assuming that McCain reaches 700 delegates once counting finishes in California, he would still need to win 77% of delegates from upcoming states to secure the nomination by April 1.

· Gov. Romney did surprisingly well in several key, battleground states. Gov. Romney won Minnesota despite Sen. McCain have the support of the sitting Republican governor and senator. Gov. Romney also did better than expected in Georgia and Missouri.

· Gov. Romney has received eleven gold medals, eleven silver medals and six bronzes. He is the clear full-spectrum conservative in this race.

Post-Feb. 5:

· On Thursday, Gov. Romney will be at the Conservative Political Action Conference where Gov. Romney will address his vision for the future of the Republican Party and nation.

· After Feb. 5, we expect to be competitive in the Kansas and Washington state caucuses on Feb. 9 and then the Feb. 12 states – Virginia, Maryland, and also Washington, D.C.

· Upcoming states will be fertile ground for Gov. Romney because the two largest states on the primary calendar between today and April 1, Texas and Ohio, are favorable terrain. Texas has a very conservative GOP primary vote and 140 delegates; Ohio's economy is similar to Michigan and the state has 88 delegates.

· Gov. Romney did well in caucus states where we focused our energy and resources. In just a few days, Republican voters will caucus in Kansas (39 delegates, winner-take-all) and Washington (40 delegates, proportional) which promise to be strong states for Gov. Romney.Conservatives Are Coalescing Behind Governor Romney:

· Once again, Gov. Romney carried conservative voters by wide margins. Nationally, he won conservatives by double-digits, 42%-31% over Sen. McCain.

· Even in states Sen. McCain won, Gov. Romney carried conservative voters. For instance, in California, Gov. Romney won conservatives by six points, 39%-33%. Gov. Romney even won conservatives in McCain's home state of Arizona, 43%-40%.

The Republican Party Is Not Coalescing Behind Sen. McCain And Gov. Huckabee:·

Super Tuesday's results show that Sen. McCain is not the presumptive Republican nominee as he himself had expected.

· Sen. McCain made several campaign mistakes. He spent the last few days campaigning where he was the strongest – New York, New Jersey and Connecticut. He also spent time in Massachusetts where Gov. Romney won comfortably.

· Gov. Huckabee is not expanding his base of support. He overperformed anywhere where there were large numbers of evangelical voters and underperformed wherever there weren't. Gov. Huckabee's lack of support is evident in his underperforming showings in AZ, CA, NJ, NY, CT and MA.

· Gov. Huckabee has lost five states to Ron Paul, including at least three on Super Tuesday.

We Don't Have to Pull the Trigger!